Does Lukashenka have the support of the average Belarusian?

In 1994 Alyaksandr Lukashenka unexpectedly won the first Belarusian elections. Since that time, measuring his popularly is difficult for two reasons. First, since 1994 elections have no longer been free and fair. Second, most of the population has no access to independent media.

In the first and only relatively democratic elections of 1994, Alyaksandr Lukashenka received 44.82 percent in the first round, and 80.1 percent in the runoff. That constituted 56 % of all registered voters.  He was re-elected in 2001, 2006 and 2010 with around 80% of votes each time. Most international election observers characterized these elections as neither free nor fair. Restrictions on campaigning by opposition candidates, censorship in the media, coercion of voters, ballot stuffing and non-transparent counting of votes are the most common examples of election irregularities in Belarus.

In the absence of free elections, it is difficult to estimate the level of support for Lukashenka. During years of relative prosperity as a result of generous Russian subsidies most Belarusians passively tolerated the regime.  However, the situation is changing because of the economic crisis, which resulted from Russia’s cuts to subsidies to Belarus. Despite censorship in the state media and propaganda campaigns, many Belarusians became disillusioned with Lukashenka and his support is at an all time low.